China’s yuan firms, academics urge Beijing to loosen grip
SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China’s yuan firmed slightly resistant to the dollar on Tuesday, buoyed by its firmer offshore counterpart and since corporates eased off heavy dollar purchases this month.
The onshore market shows more stability, with short sellers shying far from shorting the currency considering that the authorities engineered a rise in offshore borrowing costs earlier this month, but traders say sentiment remains weak on views the yuan may soon resume its downward trend.
The People’s Bank of China set the midpoint rate at 6.8992 per dollar earlier than market open, weaker as compared to the previous fix 6.8874.
The spot market opened at 6.9033 per dollar and was changing hands at 6.8971 at midday, 34 pips firmer compared to the previous late session close only 0.03 percent softer when compared to the midpoint.
“The market was quite stable and balanced in the morning,” said a Shanghai-based trader within a Chinese bank, noting companies were hoping for better quotes to buy the greenback. “A greater offshore yuan and the continued consolidation in your U.S. dollar have dampened corporate dollar purchases.”
Traders were unwilling to sell onshore spot too aggressively given stronger offshore rates and expectations that conditions may very well be tight ahead of the week-long Lunar New Year.
The spread between onshore and offshore yuan has eased to near 400 pips, narrowing from around 1,000 pips as a result of January.
As of midday, offshore yuan was trading 0.57 percent firmer as opposed to onshore spot at 6.8583 per dollar.
The market have also been awaiting clearer direction to the yuan, ahead of an alternative U.S. administration in Washington recently and with China’s economic growth under greater scrutiny.
“It’s my opinion the market will have a clearer picture around in the post-Lunar New Year holiday, in the event the U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has taken office and announced his policies,” said another trader with only a foreign bank, suggesting weak sentiment would likely persist up until the beginning of February.
Liquidity usually thins killing the Lunar New Year holiday, that’ll see markets shut from Jan. 27 to Feb. 2.
China will lower its 2019 economic growth target to around 6.5 % from last year’s 6.5-7 percent target range, policy sources told Reuters, reinforcing an insurance quote shift from supporting growth to pushing reforms to contain debt and housing risks.
Uncertainty covering the yuan was also exacerbated by using a rare public debate among academics advocating that this authorities push forward a cost-free float for that currency.
Yu Yongding, a scholar at the China Academy of Social Sciences and former central bank adviser, said that China should overcome the “irrational fear” of allowing men and women yuan to float freely.
On Monday, Xiao Lisheng, a senior finance researcher in the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, wrote while in the official China Securities Journal suggesting the federal government stop intervening through the foreign exchange market, devalue the yuan and allow it to go float freely rebuild stability.
China’s central bank sold fabric 317.8 billion yuan ($46.08 billion) property value of foreign exchange in December, continuing efforts to allow for the sliding yuan.
The Thomson Reuters/HKEX Global CNH index, which tracks the offshore yuan against a gift basket of currencies each and every day, stood at 96.04, weaker compared to previous day’s 96.13.
Offshore one-year non-deliverable forwards contracts (NDFs), considered the very best available proxy for forward-looking market expectations of one’s yuan’s value, traded at 7.1542, 3.56 percent weaker compared to the midpoint.
One-year NDFs are settled about the midpoint, not be sure that rate.
The yuan market at 0359 GMT:
ONSHORE SPOT:
Item Current Previous Change
PBOC midpoint 6.8992 6.8874 -0.17%
Spot yuan 6.8971 6.9005 0.05%
Divergence from -0.03%
midpoint*
Spot change YTD 0.72%
Spot change since 2005 20.00%
revaluation
Key indexes:
Item Current Previous Change
Thomson 96.04 96.13 -0.1
Reuters/HKEX
CNH index
Dollar index 101.39 101.18 0.2
*Divergence within the dollar/yuan exchange rate. Negative number implies that spot yuan is trading stronger compared to midpoint. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) allows the exchange rate to elevate or fall 2 percent from official midpoint rate it sets every day.
OFFSHORE CNH MARKET
Instrument Current Difference
from onshore
Offshore spot yuan * 6.8583 0.57%
Offshore 7.1542 -3.56%
non-deliverable
forwards **
*Premium for offshore spot over onshore
**Figure reflects difference from PBOC’s official midpoint, since non-deliverable forwards are settled up against the midpoint..
($1 = 6.8960 Chinese yuan renminbi)